With just a day to the September 2, 2025, Akwatia by-election, the political stage is set for an epic showdown between the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). With polling data suggesting an incredibly close race, but putting the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate in the lead, the question remains: Is incumbency advantage overriding ‘sympathy’ votes?

A History of Political Shifts in Akwatia

Power has alternated between the NDC and the NPP since the beginning of the Fourth Republic. The constituency’s first elected Member of Parliament in 1992 was Gilbert Kwasi Agyei of the NDC. He was succeeded in 1996 by Alhaji Mohammed Erzuah Siam, also of the NDC. The NPP gained control in 2000 with the election of Kinston Akomeng Kissi, who retained the seat until the 2008 general elections when Kofi Asare, also of the NPP, was elected.

The seat flipped back to the NDC in 2012 with Baba Jamal emerging victorious. In 2016, Mercy Adu-Gyamfi reclaimed it for the NPP. Four years later, in 2020, Henry Boakye of the NDC won the seat. Most recently, in the 2024 elections, Ernest Kumi of the NPP was elected Member of Parliament for Akwatia. The 2024 election result, however, did not go uncontested. Legal proceedings were initiated, and in January 2025, the Koforidua High Court issued an interim injunction barring Ernest Kumi from being sworn in as the MP for Akwatia. Despite the order, Kumi went ahead with the swearing-in, leading the court to find him in contempt and issue a warrant for his arrest.

This ruling was later overturned by the Supreme Court in June 2025, clearing the legal cloud over his legitimacy as a Member of Parliament.

Tragically, Ernest Kumi died suddenly in July 2025, barely a month after the Supreme Court ruling. His death brought a somber end to what had been one of the most controversial post-election legal battles in the country.

A Contested Contest: The Race Begins

With the seat now vacant, both the NPP and the NDC are gearing up for a fierce contest. The NPP endorsed Solomon Asumadu, the constituency treasurer from Boadua, as their candidate, while the NDC has put forward Bernard Bediako, the party’s constituency secretary from Takorase, whose roots trace back to Kusi and Wenchi. David Ankomah of the Action People’s Party (APP) was initially in the race but was disqualified over issues related to his tax clearance certificate. He claims the disqualification is part of a “grand scheme” to exclude him from the contest.

Meanwhile, the two main parties have proclaimed victory for themselves and defeat for their opponent. While the NDC has said that it will deliver a “heavy defeat” to the NPP, the NPP has resolved to secure victory while honouring the legacy of the late Member of Parliament, Ernest Kumi, whose passing necessitated the by-election. But what is interesting are the emerging poll findings trickling in.

Poll Predictions: A Glimpse into the Tight Race

As the election date nears, polling data offers a snapshot of what could be a nail-biting finish. The Global Info Analytics and Sanity Africa research groups have both weighed in with predictions, and the findings indicate a close race, with the NDC holding a slight edge.

Global Info Analytics’ poll, conducted between August 27 and 28, 2025, and surveyed 2,050 voters across the constituency, showed Bernard Bediako leading with 53%, while Solomon Asumadu trailed with 47%. This margin, though narrow, places the NDC candidate in the driving seat.

The poll highlighted the importance of issues such as unemployment, economic hardship, and access to social amenities, which have dominated the campaign trail. These issues, the survey noted, have been central to the political discourse in Akwatia, with voters eager for change. However, the undecided voters could still play a pivotal role in determining the outcome, either consolidating Bediako’s lead or swinging the vote in Asumadu’s favor.

Sanity Africa also conducted a poll from August 1 to August 27, 2025, with a sample size of 1,568 voters, projecting Bediako with a slight lead of 52.3% compared to Asumadu’s 47.7%. The margin here is just 4.6 percentage points, suggesting a highly competitive race. The findings also revealed significant demographic splits within the constituency, with educated voters largely supporting Bediako, while Asumadu’s strongest support came from the unemployed and informal workers, many of whom are linked to the “galamsey” (illegal mining) sector.

Turnout and Mobilisation: The Decisive Factor

Both surveys agree that voter mobilisation will be key to the outcome. Ghana’s by-elections have historically seen low turnout, and analysts predict just a 48% turnout in Akwatia due to political fatigue and the heavy security presence expected on election day.

“In such a closely contested by-election, mobiliation is everything,” Sanity Africa stated. “The candidate who best activates their base and overcomes turnout barriers will likely emerge victorious.”

What’s at Stake for the Parties?

For the NDC, winning Akwatia would reinforce its position in Parliament and signal continued public support as it heads toward the 2028 general elections. A victory would show that the governing party still enjoys strong backing in key constituencies and could be seen as a vote of confidence in its leadership and policies.

For the NPP, a win in Akwatia would be a major boost for the opposition, showing that it remains competitive and capable of reclaiming ground from the NDC. It would also energise its supporters and strengthen its message heading into the next election cycle. Moreover, the NPP is keen to honour the legacy of the late Ernest Kumi, whose sudden death created the vacancy in the first place.

The Final Word: A Battle for Political Survival

As the clock ticks down to the Akwatia by-election, both parties are going all-out to secure victory. With the stakes higher than ever, this by-election promises to be a key political moment in Ghana’s ongoing democratic journey.

Whether the NDC can leverage its incumbency advantage or whether the NPP can capitalise on the ‘sympathy’ vote for Ernest Kumi will likely determine the outcome. What’s certain is that the battle for Akwatia is heating up and anything can happen.

Sompaonline.com